Probabilistic judgements e-learning

Elicitation requires experts to make probabilistic judgements, such as median and quartiles, that are difficult and unfamiliar tasks for most experts. Training is always given in a SHELF workshop, but it takes time for experts to understand the judgements required and to make them reliably. The idea of the e-learning course is for experts who will take part in a SHELF elicitation workshop to get exposure to the kinds of judgements they will be required to make, before the workshop itself, and in a relaxed, self-paced way.

Credits

The work conducted to create this course was led by Dr Leslie New at WSU Vancouver, and Tony O’Hagan. The screen designs and programming are the work of Grifo Multimedia srl.

The development of the course was funded by a grant from the United States Office of Naval Research for the PCOD+ project.

Take the course

The course should take about two hours to complete.

Module 0

Module 0

Introduction

Module 1

Module 1

Probabilities

Module 2

Module 2

Distributions

Module 3

Module 3

Judgements

Module 4

Module 4

Practice