Short course: Expert Knowledge Elicitation
The School of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Sheffield, UK
8-10 January 2018
Professor Anthony O’Hagan, Professor Jeremy Oakley, Dr John Paul Gosling, Dr Andy Hart, Dr Kate Ren
Expert knowledge elicitation is the process of extracting an expert’s (or group of experts’) knowledge about some unknown quantity of interest, and constructing a probability distribution to represent the expert’s uncertainty about the quantity. It is often used in a decision-making or risk analysis context, when suitable data are unavailable, so that one is reliant upon expert opinion; it enables the uncertainties to be properly quantified and understood. This course will cover the SHELF method of elicitation: a behavioural aggregation method for eliciting probability distributions from a group of experts.
The first two days will comprise a comprehensive short course, Elicitation with SHELF. The course will cover the principles of expert elicitation and the SHELF method, together with practical considerations in planning and running a SHELF elicitation workshop.
Participants may choose to attend the first two days only.
The key role in the SHELF method is that of the facilitator. The third day, Advanced Facilitation, will be an intensive, small group, hands-on session for participants who wish to be trained to act as facilitators. Each trainee will gain practical experience of facilitating a SHELF elicitation workshop, using carefully designed and realistic scenarios. Trainees will also gain experience in another important role, that of recorder. This session is open to a maximum of four trainees.
- Two-day elicitation with SHELF £500
- Advanced facilitation day £1300
Course fees include lunch and refreshments. Participants will need to arrange their own accommodation.