SHELF 1.4.0 is now on CRAN.



Expert elicitation

Eliciting probability distributions to represent experts’ beliefs

Health economics

Applications of Bayesian statistics in health economics

Uncertainty Quantification

Quantifying uncertainty in computer model predictions


All publications

A full list of publications is available on my Google Scholar page.

Selected recent papers

Incorporating genuine prior information about between-study heterogeneity in random effects pairwise and network meta-analyses

Details PDF Medical Decision Making

Efficient history matching of a high dimensional individual based HIV transmission model

Details PDF JUQ

Eliciting judgements about uncertain population means and variances

Details PDF arXiv

Calibration of stochastic computer simulators using likelihood emulation

Details PDF Technometrics


PhD Supervision

Current PhD students

  • Jeremy Colman
  • Budhi Handoko
  • Oliver Jones (joint with ACSE)
  • Jordan Parry (joint with Mechanical Engineering)

Previous PhD students

See here for a list of previous PhD students, thesis titles, and links to theses online (where available).

Advice to PhD applicants

I aim to recruit one or two PhD students each year, and applications are welcome at any time. If you are considering applying to me to supervise your PhD, please read this advice first.