I am a Professor of Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sheffield. My research interests are in Bayesian statistics, in particular analysing uncertainty in complex computer models, eliciting probability distributions, and applications in Health Economics.

School of Mathematics and Statistics

The Hicks Building

Hounsfield Road

Sheffield

S3 7RH

Room I18

+44 114 2223853

j.oakley at sheffield.ac.uk

### Latest papers/publications

- Oakley, J. E. and Youngman, B.D. (2015). Calibration of stochastic computer simulators using likelihood emulation. To appear in Technometrics.
- Strong M., Oakley J. E., Brennan A. and Breeze, P. (2015). Estimating the expected value of sample information using the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a fast nonparametric regression-based method. Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-83.
- Andrianakis I, Vernon IR, McCreesh N, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, et al. (2015) Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Comput Biol 11(1): e1003968. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003968
- Morris, D. E., Oakley, J. E. and Crowe, J. A. (2014). A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling & Software, 52, 1-4.
- Ren, S. and Oakley, J. E. (2014). Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine 33(1), 31-45. Download supporting R code.
- Strong, M. and Oakley, J. E. (2014). When is a model good enough? Deriving the expected value of model improvement via specifying internal model discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125.